Streaming arrival prediction · South Korea flag South Korea

When will Hamnet be streaming in South Korea?

Our prediction
Around June 9, 2026
Confidence band: April 19, 2026 – July 30, 2026

Based on how long similar films take from theatrical release to digital streaming in South Korea. We update this prediction weekly. The day Hamnet actually drops we'll notify you (if you set the alert below).

The predicted window has already opened. If it's not on streaming yet, it's running late vs typical patterns.

Prediction first published May 21, 2026 · refreshed weekly

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How we predicted this

Our honest method.

We look at every film released theatrically in the last 48 months across our 15 prediction markets that has SINCE made it to streaming. We compute how many days it took to go from theatrical to streaming for each one. That historical distribution gives us two reference deltas: a South Korea-specific median (when we have enough local data) and an Asia-regional median (the much larger cross-country pool). We blend the two based on how many local samples we have for South Korea.

For Hamnet in South Korea flag South Korea, the anchor is the theatrical release on February 25, 2026. Applying our blended model:

Method: blended median 104d (country n=6, regional n=47), σ=51d
Sample size used: 6 films (country + regional pool)
Confidence: MEDIUM

Confidence improves week over week as our cross-country training pool grows. Each weekly cron run adds more observed (theatrical → digital) deltas to our model.

We don't predict the SPECIFIC streaming service in v1 (Netflix vs Prime vs JioHotstar) because that requires studio-level data we don't yet have reliably. When the title actually arrives, we update this page with the real provider and your alert email goes out automatically.

Track record in South Korea so far: 36% of our 11 confirmed arrivals landed inside the window we published. Every confirmation, hit or miss, stays on the record.

Prediction history

Every call we made, on the record.

This log is append-only. When a weekly refresh moves the window or the confidence, we record it here instead of silently rewriting the page.

  1. May 21, 2026First predictionWindow April 19, 2026 to July 30, 2026 · medium confidence